Is predicting the next president like BattleBots?

In my last blog entry I suggested that BattleBots, a show that features robots battling in a ring, can be humorous — largely because we don’t know which robot style is going to win, and because robots aren’t alive.

In the current U.S. presidential battle, the participants also have different styles.  Whether they are humorous or not is in the eyes of the beholder.  But, predicting the winner may be harder than predicting whether a spinning robot with a slicer and dicer is going to defeat — or be defeated by — another bot with a hammer and flipper.

That’s why today I blogged on about some of the various prediction sites and even a related contest held by the American Statistical Association.  I included a BBC News video which describes how some prediction models that supposedly have had success in the past are not in agreement so far this year.

As a science fiction writer, I often wonder just how far scientists and experts will go with predictions, Big Data, and statistics.  If you wonder too, you might enjoy my short story entitled “Surfing the Wave” about a young man who takes statistical analysis to the extreme.  It’s in my e-book anthology, “Science Fiction: Future Youth“.